Explaining the Tight Race

Slate reported, "Even a casual viewer of Hardball knows that the first rule of an election that involves a sitting president is that it's a referendum on the incumbent. This election, however, has turned out to be the opposite. It's a referendum on the challenger. Kerry probably isn't responsible for this turn of events, but he's benefiting from it: The referendum on the incumbent is over. President Bush already lost it. This presidential campaign isn't about whether the current president deserves a second term. It's about whether the challenger is a worthy replacement."

Thus, the tight race may not be so much about the polarized electorate (make no mistake that it is there, though).  Instead, the tight race may just reflect America's uncertainty about Kerry.  If the Dems have a good week at their convention, we may finally begin to see the nation break for them, a'la 1980 in reverse.