MoveOn Has It Right

In a print advertisement appearing in the New York Times, MoveOn.org finally got something right.

That is, that Gallup has recently decided that the partisan makeup of the electorate, since the Republican convention, has shifted more decisively to the Republicans than even in the 2002 midterms. Gallup expects likely voters to consist of 40% Republicans, and 33% Democrats. This generates a 52%-44% lead for President Bush in a recent poll.

However, as myDD points out, if you weight the partisan split to match the 2000 election (much closer to the likely outcome than a midterm election), then the 52%-44% margin becomes a 46%-50%. Nonpartisan indeed.

What's worse is that Gallup has been the consistent pro-Bush outlier in most polls since Kerry picked Edwards in early July.

I really hope that blows up in their faces as much as the mid-term results blew up in everyone's faces.