Newsweek Misses A Beat

By attempting to get a poll out in time for next week's edition, Newsweek broke a cardinal rule in presenting useful measurements of the Democrat bounce coming out of their convention.

Newsweek noted that Friday's numbers were sharply different from Thursday's (54/41 vs. 49/47), but did not conduct any other interviews. Meaning, that at least half of the poll was conducted before most people saw Edwards or Kerry give their speeches, and certainly before Americans could settle on their assessment of the convention.

Thus, the alleged 52-44 margin, as a "two-point" bounce from 3 weeks ago's numbers, is relatively useless. Better still would be poll results later in the week after voters get a chance to digest the news.

But if this is any indication, the Democrats have done very well with their convention, turning a possible 2 point lead into 13 points within 24 hours.

The Speeches So Far

So far, I liked the down-played Al Gore speech, thought Clinton was a little off and Carter a little ticked off.  Heh.  But don't get me started on Ted Kennedy's speech this week - he bellowed and the content sucked.

On Tuesday, I was floored by the quality of Barack Obama's speech and the horrific delivery of Teresa Heinz.  And whose decision was it to put her speech in network broadcast time instead of the keynote address by Obama?

On Wednesday, I liked the optimism of Governor Granholm, and was not impressed by Edwards.  Don't get me wrong, he's a strong orator, but his voice was coarse and my mind wandered as I noticed that he lifted whole paragraphs of his address from previous advertisements and stump speeches.

And that is just my quick take on the Democratic convention.

Playing Politics With Homeland Security

Yahoo! reports that the FBI has issued a terror alert for California and New Mexico.  Except, the last time they did so the Homeland Security director downplayed the reports and made it seem like a turf  battle.  At the same time, the FBI's overzealous push on terrorism was seen as an attempt to force a political desire onto homeland security policy.

If I recall, Kerry is accepting his party's nomination for the Presidency, opposing Bush.  Issuing terror alerts would go a long way to diminishing media coverage of his speech....

The Republicans need to stop toying with homeland security for political ends and only issue alerts if it is meaningful, unique, and serious.  Don't just raise the alarms to get your name above fold in the Washington Post.

New Website Features

As promised, I am continuing to improve www.kenkerns.com with new content and features.  Today I introduced 2 new items - "Ken Endorses 2004" and the "Library of Resources".

"Ken Endorses 2004" is, quite simply, a list of candidates that I support, either monetarily or just in the name of it.  For example, I have not donated to the full Kerry/Edwards ticket, although I will vote for them and donated to 2 primary campaigns this time (Graham and Edwards).  I might, in the future, designate which ones I donated to, but that is not a given.

"Library of Resources" or a variant name thereof, is akin to an attic and otherwise is my main archival system for older webpages and useful data collections.  Use it if you wish, but its primary purpose is for me to hold on to my old stuff.

Use either feature if you wish.  More will come with time.

Barack Obama for President

Barack Obama rocked the Democratic convention with an uplifting, unifying speech about the ideals that America great.  He beat the over-hyped expectations and is quickly becoming my favorite to be the first black President, following 8 years of Kerry.

Here's a condensed version of his speech, down to the parts that I liked the most:

That is the true genius of America, a faith in simple dreams, an insistence on small miracles; that we can tuck in our children at night and know that they are fed and clothed and safe from harm; that we can say what we think, write what we think, without hearing a sudden knock on the door; that we can have an idea and start our own business without paying a bribe; that we can participate in the political process without fear of retribution; and that our votes will be counted -- or at least, most of the time.
 
People don't expect -- people don't expect government to solve all their problems. But they sense, deep in their bones, that with just a slight change in priorities, we can make sure that every child in America has a decent shot at life and that the doors of opportunity remain open to all. They know we can do better. And they want that choice.
 
Now even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters and negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes.

Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America.   There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America.   The pundits, the pundits like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue States: red states for Republicans, blue States for Democrats. But I've got news for them, too. We worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don't like federal agents poking around our libraries in the red states.  We coach little league in the blue states and, yes, we've got some gay friends in the red states.   There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq, and there are patriots who supported the war in Iraq.  We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America.
 
In the end, that's what this election is about. Do we participate in a politics of cynicism, or do we participate in a politics of hope?  Hope in the face of difficulty, hope in the face of uncertainty, the audacity of hope: In the end, that is God's greatest gift to us, the bedrock of this nation, a belief in things not seen, a belief that there are better days ahead.
 
And this country will reclaim it's promise. And out of this long political darkness a brighter day will come.

Explaining the Tight Race

Slate reported, "Even a casual viewer of Hardball knows that the first rule of an election that involves a sitting president is that it's a referendum on the incumbent. This election, however, has turned out to be the opposite. It's a referendum on the challenger. Kerry probably isn't responsible for this turn of events, but he's benefiting from it: The referendum on the incumbent is over. President Bush already lost it. This presidential campaign isn't about whether the current president deserves a second term. It's about whether the challenger is a worthy replacement."

Thus, the tight race may not be so much about the polarized electorate (make no mistake that it is there, though).  Instead, the tight race may just reflect America's uncertainty about Kerry.  If the Dems have a good week at their convention, we may finally begin to see the nation break for them, a'la 1980 in reverse.

Revision Spoiler

The following is a spolier of the updated "A True Gator Party," whose revisions should be completed by the end of August 2004, a year after the original draft was written.
 
An idealist, he would never give up the fight against elitism, even from within his quarters.  His ideas gave the circle pause, as they were unsure what he was doing to their campus government.  In the end, they recognized that the one truism to their activities would apply to him as well.  It was the very reason for their long-running success.   It might take work, and it might take deception.  It might even take a belated tapping.  Once accomplished, however, it would solve their problems.

No matter what it took, anyone can be brought into The Circle.

Even Mike Adams.

Sentimentalist's Theory

A sentimental favorite theory of mine to explain the botched interview, put forward by a friendly manager at my work, is that my interviewer may not have been the one to decide that I should be interviewed, thus explaining the weird and unknowledgeable questions.  I say it is a sentimental theory because the implication is that someone higher up made the decision, and that is a very rosy implication indeed.

The other logical theory is that she simply didn't re-read the resume before my interview (given I sent it in 2 months ago), and thus she wasn't completely prepared.  Or, more matter-of-factly, the job is so unimportant that the interviews were perfunctory at best.

At any rate, barring a surprise, I should know by middle of next week whether I get a choice of changing jobs, or whether I go back to square one on the job hunt.

It Bit

So, the inteview was for a Staff Assistant job (one of 2 front-desk people), and I spent more time waiting in Rockefeller's office for the interview than having the interview itself.  And Shirley Adkins, the office manager, seemingly thought I was a current college student with lots of volunteer experience; not someone with a completed master's and 2 years paid experience doing a job similar to a Legislative Correspondent.  And even then, she did not know what my major was, had no idea I was currently employed, and showed no interest in the fact that I work for a major constituency in the Senator's state.  All this despite having my resume was right in front of her and she should have read it (why else was I being interviewed?).

Not to mention, the people I would replace spent the entire afternoon talking about cars and weddings.  I got the impression that a staffer was leaving for grad/law school and they needed to replace her.  She spent more time complaining turnover and asking whether I wanted to further my education (as if a master's isn't enough!).

All this for a job that I am over-qualified for that pays less in a year than what I make in about 8 months.  But, I'll know by middle of next week if they went with someone else (perhaps an unemployed Ph.D. with a best-selling book who will commute daily from West Virginia?)  LOL.  I'll post if I hear anything.

Wish Me Luck

I've got an interview tomorrow for a job, possibly as a Legislative Correspondent (although I am not sure of that) in Senator Jay Rockefeller's D.C. Office.  I was called out of the blue on my way home today and asked to do the interview tomorrow.  We'll see how it goes.  (I am not looking forward to putting on a suit and facing any of the inevitable office gossip during the morning before the interview.)

Literary Update

In the last week, I've sent out a number of query letters by email to literary agents, and now can confidently claim to be have been rejected with almost all of the various ways of being rejected.  Heh.
 
What I mean is that, aside from never being told my writing sucked, the agents have variably said that they don't handle my genre, they can't get excited about it, they can't get a commercial pulse from it (whatever that means), they aren't taking new clients, or a similar rejection.  I even have one in writing that is the worst form letter - it lists every possible reason for rejection in paragraph form, precluding even a check mark next to the most likely reason.
 
The one plus thus far has been one agency who, while not accepting me now, welcome a second chance to look at my "interesting synopsis" later this fall, when they take on new clients.
 
Have no fear, however.  I plan on continuing my hunt for an agent to represent A True Gator Party.

Eileen Roy for School Board

According to the Gainesville Sun, one of my high school english teachers is running for the Alachua County School Board (District 2). Eileen Roy is an outspoken critic of "neighborhood school" zoning that has the effect of resegregating the student population and minimizing the appeal of magnet programs. She also has pledged support for teacher pay raises and new revenue sources for school construction.

On these issues, and the fact that I got to know and appreciate her skills as an educator (for 2 years), I have endorsed Eileen Roy for School Board. I also urge any of you readers in Alachua County to do the same.

Liberal Flip-Flopper

It strikes me as odd that no one is making a counter-argument to the political charges leveled against Senator Kerry.  And it makes me wonder why the smart strategists really aren't in politics.

Specifically, the Bush campaign calls Kerry a liberal.  It also attacks him a flip-flopper who is on every side of every issue.  Aren't those two claims contradictory?  You are either a liberal who is out of step with the mainstream values of this country, or you are a opportunistic politician who takes both the liberal and the conservative side of every issue.

The Republicans need to decide which argument to use - the liberal values one, or the unsafe tilter-in-the-winds.  Otherwise, they'll give the Kerry camp a chance to bring out their centrist credentials and undermine both charges.

Slim Fast Is a Big Loser

Apparently, Republicans can tell Big Business who to hire and who to fire.  Slim Fast has fired Whoppi Goldberg as their spokeswoman after she bad-mouthed President Bush after a Kerry/Edwards fundraiser last week.
 
But I got to wonder - which dolts will be buying Slim Fast based on Whoppi and then giving it up because she doesn't like Bush?  It's an argument similar to: "Whoppi hates Bush, so I'm going to refuse to lose weight."  In other words, it sounds like a reverse hunger strike.
 
Truse me, people do not buy products based on the spokesman.  Unless the consumer is 3 years old.
 
Slim Fast is being a big tool of the Republicans.
 
Thank God I already don't use it!

Ron Reagan vs. Zell Miller

The two party conventions are battling it out for the best of the unexpected convention speakers - the GOP nailed Senator Zell Miller (D-GA), while the Democrats signed the son and namesake of Ronald Reagan.

Now here are the caveats. Miller is a conservative senator who votes nearly completely in lockstep with the Bush Administration - to the point where he is a Republican in everything but name. So why remain a Dem? I personally think Miller is an attention-grabbing pig of a man who fears what would happen to his media appearances if he switched parties like he has already done behavior-wise.

Ron Reagan is a ballet-dancing liberal. He is outspoken in his opposition to Bush, and is a self-declared atheist. While this gives the Dems a good headline: "Reagan Blasts Bush, Supports Kerry," it is not as big of a deal as one might think.

In both cases, the selections are not surprising, although they do offer something of an interesting sidebar for their respective conventions.

Poster Boy Indicted

Ken Lay, the poster boy of corporate greed and gross incompetence, coupled with unfairly close ties to an Admistration, was indicated on 11 alleged crimes. Finally, the CEO of Enron will stand trial for doing nothing to stop the collapse of his company while reaping millions of dollars off the backs of his employee's retirements.

Thankfully, the Department of Justice does some good for a change.

Confirmation - "Advice"

First in a series of teasers regarding my current work-in-progress...

Brenda Freddies, the always thoughtful confidante, said, "But whatever else you may remember about my advice, do not forget this. Whatever mistakes you’ve made, whatever choices you’ve faced, anything is fair game at this stage in life. Anything and everything will come back when you least expect it. Your past and your present will not be forgiven as easily as you may have forgotten it. You are about to face The Circle of your lifetime.”

Mike Adams sat there, speechless.

She continued. “You can’t escape this. It’s your fate. A destiny set in stone the day you walked on campus for the first time.”

Voting for Vice Presidents

Without bothering to link to them, there are a lot of news stories in the last couple days saying that, although Edwards is a good choice for Kerry, that most voters will not be voting for Kerry because of the VP pick. My coworker, Ann, is a good example - she was going to be a loyal Democrat no matter, but her enthusiasm perked up with the announcement.

But it got me thinking. I seem to do what the commentators say never happen - vote for someone based on their running mates. In 2000, I filled the oval for Gore because of the strong convictions of Joe Lieberman (not his religion, like most assume when I tell them this story). In 2002, during my last Student Government campaign at UF, I did what I could for VP Joel Howell even though I was torn on who to back for the top of the ticket. Now, I was contemplating a write-in vote until Edwards got the nod.

Huh. Just another example of why I am weird.

A Winning Ticket

And no, I am not talking about the MegaMillion's $290 million jackpot, although that would be a nice surprise...

Rather, I'm talking about Kerry/Edwards.

I'll admit, Edwards was not my first choice for President (although I did vote absentee for him in the Florida primary), just as I am sure he wasn't for Kerry to be Vice President. But you have got to respect the electricity he has generated since his shockingly strong second place showing in Iowa this year.

And what's more, Edwards has built a strong rhetorical basis for Democratic politics. An optimistic populist, in short, has wide appeal in our party and doesn't come off as a class warrior as much as an opponent of elitism. Put another way, he is the anti-Kerry, and joining the Dem ticket this time might combine for an explosive reaction to end the Bush presidency once and for all.

We'll see, but the fall will now look far more interesting...

Happy Birthday, America!

In an obligatory shout-out to the United States, I wish everyone the best on this day, and tomorrow - as most of us have the day off then. Work on my website's archives and the first draft of Confirmation are slow-going, but I am taking advantage of this 3-day weekend to work on them. What are you doing this 4th of July?

A Bush Landslide?

Undaunted by public opinion trends and the historic reality of what Bush's approval ratings mean for his presidency, a bunch of academics ignore their fatal mistake last time and have declared that the incumbent (President Bush) will win in a landslide based on economic matters.

Never mind that in 2000 they made the exact same prediction and were proven wrong. And never mind that this election has less to do with the economy as it does foreign policy and Bush's credibility problem.

I have to say it - sitting in ivory towers and pouring over economic data is not the right way to look at an election. I mean, even E.J. Dionne is starting to think there is enough discontent to sweep the incumbents out.

I'm so glad professors aren't the ones choosing the next President.